ANALISIS PENGHITUNGAN PROYEKSI BELANJA OPERASIONAL  KEMENTERIAN NEGARA DAN LEMBAGA UNTUK PENYUSUNAN  PAGU INDIKATIF

Renosa Tosca Zamaro

doi:10.33827/akurasi2018.vol2.iss2.art11

Renosa Tosca Zamaro, RTZ

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33827/akurasi2018.vol2.iss2.art11

Keywords: Indicative budget, forecasting, operational spending

Abstract

In Directorate General of Budget, two methods are used in formulating forecast of operational
spending in Line Ministries to produce Indicative Budget. The first method uses the realization
of line ministries operational spending two years prior to the planned fiscal year as the basis
for the forecast. Whereas in the second method, the operational spending allocation is
forecasted based on budget allocation in the APBN one year prior to the planned fiscal year.
This study aims to find out a better calculation model in operational spending forecasting in
line ministries. Two methods used in Directorate General of Budget in forecasting operational
spending is analyzed using multiple linear regression using panel data. The analysis conducted
on 71 Line Ministies during five years period, 2011 to 2015. The result of the study indicates
that the method to forecast operational spending allocation using budget allocation in the
APBN one year prior to the planned fiscal year is statistically better.

References

Edwards, R. 2010. Forecasting Government Revenue and Expenditure in the US Using Data on
Age-specific Utilization. Working Paper no. WP10-01, National Transfer Accounts Project.
http://ntaccounts.org/doc/repository /E2010.pdf.
Government Financial Officer Association. Financial Forecasting in the Budget Preparation
Process. http://www.gfoa.org/financial-forecasting-budget-preparation-process
Hoshmand, A. Reza. 2010. Business Forecasting a Practical Approach. Edisi ke-2. New York:
Routledge.
Tim Penyusun. 2013. Dasar-Dasar Praktek Penyusunan APBN di Indonesia. Jakarta: Direktorat
Penyusunan APBN, Direktorat Jenderal Keuangan, Kementerian Keuangan.
Tim Penyusun. 2014. Pokok-Pokok Siklus APBN di Indonesia Penyusunan Konsep Kebijakan dan
Kapasitas Fiskal Sebagai Langkah Awal. Jakarta: Direktorat Penyusunan APBN,
Direktorat Jenderal Keuangan, Kementerian Keuangan.
Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia 1945 Amandemen Keempat.
Undang-Undang Nomor 17 tahun 2003 tentang Keuangan Negara.
Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 71 tahun 2010 tentang Standar Akuntansi Pemerintahan.
PeraturanPemerintah Nomor 90 tahun 2010 tentang Penyusunan Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran
Kementerian/Lembaga.