ANALISIS PENGHITUNGAN PROYEKSI BELANJA OPERASIONAL KEMENTERIAN NEGARA DAN LEMBAGA UNTUK PENYUSUNAN PAGU INDIKATIF
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33827/akurasi2018.vol2.iss2.art11Keywords:
Indicative budget, forecasting, operational spendingAbstract
In Directorate General of Budget, two methods are used in formulating forecast of operational
spending in Line Ministries to produce Indicative Budget. The first method uses the realization
of line ministries operational spending two years prior to the planned fiscal year as the basis
for the forecast. Whereas in the second method, the operational spending allocation is
forecasted based on budget allocation in the APBN one year prior to the planned fiscal year.
This study aims to find out a better calculation model in operational spending forecasting in
line ministries. Two methods used in Directorate General of Budget in forecasting operational
spending is analyzed using multiple linear regression using panel data. The analysis conducted
on 71 Line Ministies during five years period, 2011 to 2015. The result of the study indicates
that the method to forecast operational spending allocation using budget allocation in the
APBN one year prior to the planned fiscal year is statistically better.
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